Climate ModelsSee also: Climate models and Climatology
Climate models use quantitative methods to simulate the interactions of the atmosphere, oceans, land surface and ice. They are used for a variety of purposes from study of the dynamics of the weather and climate system to projections of future climate. All climate models balance, or very nearly balance, incoming energy as short wave (including visible) electromagnetic radiation to the earth with outgoing energy as long wave (infrared) electromagnetic radiation from the earth. Any imbalance results in a change in the average temperature of the earth.
The most talked-about applications of these models in recent years have been their use to infer the consequences of increasing greenhouse gases in the atmosphere, primarily carbon dioxide (see greenhouse gas). These models predict an upward trend in the global mean surface temperature, with the most rapid increase in temperature being projected for the higher latitudes of the Northern Hemisphere.
Models can range from relatively simple to quite complex:
- Simple radiant heat transfer model that treats the earth as a single point and averages outgoing energy
- this can be expanded vertically (radiative-convective models), or horizontally
- finally, (coupled) atmosphere–ocean–sea ice global climate models discretise and solve the full equations for mass and energy transfer and radiant exchange.
Climate forecasting is a way by some scientists are using to predict climate change. In 1997 the prediction division of the International Research Institute for Climate and Society at Columbia University began generating seasonal climate forecasts on a real-time basis. To produce these forecasts an extensive suite of forecasting tools was developed, including a multimodel ensemble approach that required thorough validation of each model's accuracy level in simulating interannual climate variability.
Other articles related to "climate models, climate, models, model, climate model":
... Climate models use quantitative methods to simulate the interactions of the atmosphere, oceans, land surface, and ice ... variety of purposes from study of the dynamics of the weather and climate system to projections of future climate ... All climate models balance, or very nearly balance, incoming energy as short wave (including visible) electromagnetic radiation to the earth with ...
... Spencer believes that most climate change is natural in origin, the result of long-term changes in the Earth’s albedo (sunlight reflectivity) and that anthropogenic greenhouse gas ... "big picture" understanding of the climate system to be relied upon for a prediction of the magnitude of global warming ... He also criticized climate models, saying "The people that have built the climate models that predict global warming believe they have sufficient physics in those models to predict the future ...
... began the modern development of the general circulation model in the early 20th century ... It wasn't until the 1950s that the numerical models were getting close to being realistic ... Hansen's first contribution to numerical climate models came with the 1974 publication of the GISS model ...
... Antarctica shows the lack of reliability of the models used for global warming predictions and even of climate theory in general ... are broadly consistent with the small magnitude of model-predicted temperature trends for Antarctica ... to Crichton's claims was presented by the group Real Climate Long term temperature data from the Southern Hemisphere are hard to find, and by the time you get to the Antarctic ...
... A climate model is a computerized representation of the five components of the climate system Atmosphere, hydrosphere, cryosphere, land surface, and biosphere ... Such models are based on physical principles including fluid dynamics, thermodynamics and radiative transfer ... attempt to include as many processes as possible, simplifications of the actual climate system are inevitable because of the constraints of available computer power and limitations in knowledge of the ...
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